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VOL. V NO. 11, May 08-May 21, 2009

Obama: An Honest Broker for Middle East Peace?

Speculation about President Obama's broad Mideast peace plan featured prominently in recent media. While the details of the president's Middle East strategy are "likely to be revealed further in a speech he will deliver in Egypt on June 4," notes the Israel Policy Forum, recent meetings and negations have provided a glimpse into what Obama's policy might look like.

According to Gabor Steingart of Germany's Spiegel Online, as the Obama administration is hoping to revive the peace process, "part of the strategy is to distance Washington from Israel." Steingart cites the recent "outing" of Israel as a nuclear power by US Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller as an example of a possible shift.

"In her address to the UN, Gottemoeller called on a number of presumed nuclear powers to join the [Nonproliferation Treaty]," notes Steingart. "Universal adherence to the NPT itself, including by India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea…remains a fundamental objective of the United States," she said. Washington had never before named Israel as a nuclear power.

Steingart observes that numerous Washington think tanks have viewed Gottemoeller's demand as further proof of the Obama's administration's willingness to reform its strategy vis-à-vis Israel.

"This policy of détente has led to an increase in tensions with Israel," continues Steingart. "From his first day in office Obama made it clear to the government in Jerusalem that he would not be continuing George W. Bush's overly friendly policy."
Steingart concludes his analysis by suggesting that the US "wants to prove that it can be more than just a lobbyist for Israel, that it can also be an honest broker."

Jeremy Bowen of the BBC similarly suggests that the US-Israel relationship may be undergoing a transformation. "Tough choices will be required from all sides, and that means there could be some bumpy moments ahead in the relationship between Israel and its best friend," he speculates.

In addition to potential changes in US policy toward Israel, President Obama's Mideast plan appears to center on multilateral diplomacy. Sadie Goldman of the Israel Policy Forum says, "The Obama administration has been methodically unveiling a plan for multilateral Middle East diplomacy, which has become one of the pillars of its foreign policy thus far."

This first stage of this effort is based on "engaging Middle East leaders, listening to their concerns, gauging their mood, and then enlisting their help and support." Goldman notes that there is an implicit choice in this engagement: "be included in America's diplomatic efforts, inform the process, and be a part of a regional alignment toward the United States, or be left out and potentially face sanctions or worse."

As such, Obama is holding meetings with the key regional players. By May 28, he will have met with Jordanian King Abdullah, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu , Egyptian President Mubarak and Palestinian National Authority President Abbas.

Goldman suggests that Obama believes that ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by creating a Palestinian state is critical to a stable Middle East, and that working with Israeli and Palestinian partners alone is insufficient. "President Obama's plan encourages his partners not only to be a part of his process, but also to engage other Middle East leaders and encourage them to play ball," she continues.

In summarizing her analysis, Goldman concludes, "the Obama administration's multi-party, multi-track diplomacy signals that what they are looking for is a US-led comprehensive deal with a clear end goal-not a process, but a solution."

On a related note, a recent poll suggests that President Obama may be in a good position to forge ahead with his Mideast plans. According to Reuters, the polling outfit Ipsos reported that Obama's popularity in Arab countries far surpasses that of the US, "suggesting he could be able to boost goodwill in the region."

"Obama received favorable ratings averaging 48% in the region as a whole. Approval ran as high as 58% in Jordan…Regionwide, only one in 10 residents thought Obama would have a negative effect on their country," noted Ipsos.

The gulf between Obama's popularity and that of the US indicates "there is an opportunity for the president to literally 'bridge the gap' where his reposit goodwill lifts the goodwill toward America," Ipsos said in statement.

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